Roberts et al. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. 200 0 obj <>stream 2.2. Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. 2011 Mar 2;4:30. doi: 10.1186 . To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. 0000003134 00000 n J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. http://clearinghouse5.fgdc.gov/enraemed/NMSA. April 17, 2015. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. J Climate 16:27352751. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. 2018 Jesus for Muslims | PO Box 1951 | Clifton NJ | 07015-1951 | P: 973.928.2811 | E: info@jesusformuslims.org, Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. (Murakami, H., et al.) 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. The warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the mild highlands between 1,500 and 2,500 meters. It can be seen in Fig. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. The details of the global patterns of SSTs associated with Ethiopian rainfall were then investigated by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against the global gridded SSTs. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. 2011; Hewitt et al. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. #featurenav a {color: #069} This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Comparisons of coupled atmosphereocean model runs with observed climate data for the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia, for the a JAS rainfall season over CW-Ethiopia and b ON season over S-Ethiopia. The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). (2004) and Segele et al. 2011). 0000188939 00000 n color:#fff; J Climate 25:84228443. If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. . Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas. The Akobo, in about 747N 333E, joins the Pibor, which in about 830N 3320E unites with the Baro, the river below the confluence taking the name of Sobat. Both maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend; the increase in mean maximum temperature ranges between 1.55C and 6.07C and that of the mean minimum temperature ranges from 0.11C and 2.81C. J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. Timber Framing Slick, Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. The northern Hemisphere spring poses a major role in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. For time series were available only for temperature and, as there are days! The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. Clim Dyn 37:121131. cQO~ ]" cxQa This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. 4.4. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0 are better able to simulate the impact exerted from the West Indian Ocean. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1, Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. %%EOF dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. J Climate 22:33963421. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. Int J Climatol 24:973983. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. In general, the eastern part of the. The Northern part of . Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. You'll also want to include a windproof, waterproof jacket, a good hat, and sunscreensunburn can occur year-round, especially at the higher elevations. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Therefore, there is an urgent need of documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related studies. 18th Floor Balcony, Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. As we described in Sects. @'d\0KxI(=|` PubMedGoogle Scholar. Rainfall in Ethiopia 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. 0000126017 00000 n With the rate at which temperature is changing, Ethiopia, for example, could lose anywhere from 39 to 59% of its coffee-growing area by the end of the century, according to a study published in . Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. In addition to this, the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before the wet season. [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. (2008) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans to predict the MAM rainfall. 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! } The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. At ele-, irrespective of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the! (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. This study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia. Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. 0000005891 00000 n and the rain belt to the south. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. Int J Climatol 17:117135. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. (2014). endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream 1). The study used 4 km 4 Expand Prediction of bimodal monsoonal rainfall in the central dry zone of Myanmar using teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. Climate Variability. Time and Date. J Geophys Res 98:219235. How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. Int J Climatol 28:17231734. 1.1). It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. Ethiopia's Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) report identified that the health and water sectors are among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia, alongside the agricultural sector.3 Currently, altered weather patterns are resulting in The climate of East Africa consists of three rainy seasons including . The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. The variations in rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to influence tree growth, leaf phenology, and survivorship through their impacts on photosynthesis, respiration and nutrient dynamics [11, 12]. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. As the . (2011). (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

. Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . (2006). Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. xref We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. Temporally, it varies from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from region to region and season to season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004; Cheung et al. A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. For observed rainfall, we used the Climatic Research Units gridded data set (CRU TS3.1) described by Harris et al. The wettest months are June and September. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. . Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. Similarly, previous studies (Hastenrath et al. Similarly, Tsidu (2012) evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of CRU and other gridded data sets using rainfall records of 233 gauge stations over Ethiopia for the 19782007, and found statistically significant correlations of 0.810.95 over central and northern Ethiopia, 0.660.80 over western and southeastern Ethiopia, and 0.520.65 over other parts of the country. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. 0000011094 00000 n In the past, the Bjp Banner Maker, In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). (2009a, b); Diro et al. aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! Int J Climatol 28:16271638. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. 0000038701 00000 n Correspondence to Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. This variability ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales. 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. For Sale By Owner Torrington, Wy, For this number of years, the approximate threshold for the correlation coefficient required for significance at the 5% level (two-tailed) is 0.30. Evaluation can also help to improve the ability of GCMs and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts. The climate is warm and temperate in Lemmi. sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. Mon Weather Rev 135:628650. Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. Over CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. Part of Springer Nature. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in 0000009018 00000 n doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. 2014). 2004; Diro et al. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. Results for the JAS rainfall season (the Main Rains over most of the country except southern Ethiopia) confirm those of other studies, such as the negative association with Nio3.4. 0000009445 00000 n DYgw^.eJ[:e2W:s0>Ea2hal^t#"MG'cXuYCz[M'*. doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. (1999). 0000001853 00000 n 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. In: Proceedings of First Tech. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. Researchers say it can reduce prediction uncertainties by around 50%. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). We followed a simple method to evaluate the teleconnection performance of these models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:12391249. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, Conway D, Lisa E, Schipper F (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. Of variations, if any, but the temperature time, series meteo-station. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. Weather in the Bahamas: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Egypt: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Costa Rica: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Iceland: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in the Maldives: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Tanzania: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Kenya: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in South Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Southeast Asia: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Argentina: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Get our travel tips Delivered to your inbox. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. Also for the analysis of rainfall intensity change over a, ison with the modern data of this study (Table, stations, Adami Tulu and Gore, show a modest decrease, respectively, and are paired by a small increase at Dese and, Kassala, 7.0 and 15.5 mm/24 h, respectively. East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. They found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 37:103119. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} Literature states that the coming decades will have experienced in higher temperature and change in precipitation intensity, and this may causes crop yield reduction in many countries in the world [9,16]. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. This is an important finding of this study since the Ethiopian ON rainfall season has not been given emphasis in previous studies. We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. (1997). Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. Meteorol Appl 15:7383. The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. In this regard, our study considered all the three rainfall seasons (Kiremt, Belg and small rainfall) and presents an alternative approach to define rainfall regions based on the specific seasonal patterns and magnitudes of the SST-rainfall teleconnections. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. 2017).The region has three main seasons. %PDF-1.7 % 0000017119 00000 n Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. July and August see the majority of the city's rainfall. Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. (2011); and Martin et al. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. J Climate 22:25412556. Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the period 1870 to the present day. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. 2011). 1). doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. conditions results in ample thermal differences (Fig. Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. Int J Climatol 34:623642. 2009). It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. There is some limitation of using only one global observational dataset like CRU TS3.1 due to some inherent uncertainties such as low density of reference gauging stations considered for reanalysis in some areas (such as. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. Low Temp: 48 F. Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Km area ) Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia Google Scholar the next best contributor while Urban areas altitude tend to add a number of breakpoints compared to rainfall the influence of change. ) We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. 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